REPORT: For-Hire Tonnage Index Surges 7.4% In April, Freight Recession Fears “Overblown”
Arlington, Virginia – According to the American Trucking Associations (ATA), its advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index surged 7.4% in April after decreasing 2% in March.
In April, the index equaled 121.8 (2015=100) compared with 113.4 in March, ATA said in a news release.
“The surge in truck tonnage in April is obviously good for trucking, but it is important to examine it in the context of the broader economy,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello.
“February and March were particularly weak months, as evidenced by the 3.5% dip in tonnage due to weather and other factors, so some of the gain was a catch-up effect. In addition, the Easter holiday was later than usual, likely pushing freight that would ordinarily be moved in March into April,” Costello explained.
Costello also offered a bit of a warning. “I do not think the fundamentals underlying truck tonnage are as strong as April’s figure would indicate, but this may signal that any fears of a looming freight recession may have been overblown,” he said.
Compared with April 2018, the SA index increased 7.7%, the largest year-over-year gain since July.
The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by the fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 117.7 in April, 1% above March level (116.6).
In calculating the index, 100 represents 2015.
About the index: ATA calculates the tonnage index based on surveys from its membership and has been doing so since the 1970s. This is a preliminary figure and subject to change in the final report issued around the 5th day of each month. The report includes month-to-month and year-over-year results, relevant economic comparisons, and key financial indicators.